European Open 19 July ’10

Start of the week has seen cable in a tight range (52 p), range has formed a bearish flag, or a basing pattern. Daily charts are showing a tweazer top at descending TL near 200 DMA, all of which is bearish.

The move down from 7am looks false and has started to reverse with an expanding atr. Therefore will try the long side at first with small position, if wrong will turn bearish.  Most likely we will try to push up toward the daily pivot / 38 fib of fridays move (1.5346) and possibly up to 1.5380 near US open before turing down again.

Alternatively if the current days low (1.5268) breaks the down side should open up toward 1.5200 and lower.

Trades 16 July ’10

08:00  false move appears to have occurred just before 8 am, although the atr has not been expanding as much as I would like, but the continued strength of the pound and time of day has me believing in the upside.

Long 1.5415, stop 1.5388, target 1.5540.

10:50 Stop hit  1.5388 – 27 p.

For some reason the euro is strong today but the pound is weak. Feeling a bit confused so using half position size.

11:20  Support appears to be found at  1.5365, 3 bar reversal.

Long 1.5381, stop 1.5362, target 1.5540. Half position

12:00 stop hit – 19 p.

Still surprised that cable is so weak, compared to euro.

Short 1.5360, stop 1.5405, target 1.5310. Half position

Break out trade, if no follow thru get out.

13:40  Closed 1.5391 – 31 p.

Double bottom formed, but euro still strong.

Long 1.5391, stop 1.5355, target 1.5540. Half position

Closed and reversed at 1.5377 – 14 p.

Stupid reaction trade, switching to sell rallies not looking at euro, giving up long bias.  Direction clearer hour charts starting to turn, switching back to full position.

Short 1.5377, stop 1.5405, target 1.5300

17:30  Low so far 1.5278, and starting to bounce after 184 p down for the day.

Closed at 1.5301  + 76 p.

European Open 16 July ’10

After a big moved up yesterday (236 p) the asian session has been consolidating in a flag formation, hinting at continuation of the up trend. Since 7am cable has been pushed lower near the daily pivot and 38 fib of yesterdays move. Looks like a false move down to flush out any weak hands. Look to buy dips near 1.5400 /5420.

Major overhead resistance lays near 1.5525 (aprils highs) and 1.5583 (200 dma). A close above these levels on a daily basis, would mean a break out of a 5 month range, and a move toward 1.7000′s could be on the cards in the coming months.

Alternatively the move after 8 am till present could be false, and lower prices are coming.  It would be more convincing if we spike to a new high above 1.5471, and then reverse. A move below the daily pivot (1.5389) would confirm a bearish stance.

Trades 15 July ’10

12:15  Target just hit on overnight position, cable strength continues. No idea why!

13:30 Long 1.5349, stop 1.5310, target 1.5420, T/S 37 p.

15:15  trailing stop hit 1.5356  + 7 p.

18:00 Long 1.5362, stop 1.5345, target 1.5390

Quick range trade at end of day, cable has settled in 60 p range.

18:45  Target hit 1.5390 + 28 p.

21:00 Much to my amazement cable continued to show strength into the US afternoon high so far 1.5472.

European Open 15 July ’10

Asian session was very uneventful as usual, staying within a 50 p range, and forming a flag formation, hinting at one more push higher, possibly to the daily TL about 1.5480. Possible false move occurred at 7.30 am, although did not push down far 30 ish p. Look to buy dips.

The alternative is that cable is forming a top at the daily 38 fib resistance, and a new spike high will happen in the next few hours, spiking thru 1.5300, then reversing.

Trades 14 July ’10

08:25  A false move down between 7am and 8am appears to have developed, and is showing good strength off support, with 15min reversal candles, and potential tweazer outside bar on hour chart.

Long 1.5212, stop 1.5185, target 1.5340, T/S 37 p.

10:10 new high at 1.5280 and stalling

Trailing stop hit 1.5236   + 24 p.

10:15 3 bar reversal on 5 min cart back to 38 fib at previous resistance (1.5240)

Long 1.5256, stop 1.5232, target 1.5340, T/S 37 p.

12:00 Closed at 1.5261  + 5 p.

12:25 Long 1.5257, stop 1.5234, target 1.5340, T/S 37 p.

12:45  Stop hit  - 23 p.

Cable seems to be running out of steam with the hourly charts starting to show signs of reversal, near the 38 fib on the daily chart (1.4230 – 1.7042).

13:30  Long 1.5249, stop 1.5215, target 1.5340, T/S 37 p. Half position

Closed 1.5224  - 25 p.

Stupid trade in reaction to momentum.

13:50 Short 1.5227, stop 1.5260, Half position.  stop hit  - 33p.

Another stupid trade out of frustration.

16:15 Long 1.5285, stop 1.5225, target 1.5360.

Overnight position as cable showing relentless strength.

15.07.10  12:15 Target hit 1.5358  + 73 p.

European Open 14 July ’10

Overnight cable banged up a against previous days high resistance (1.5240) and was rejected, this is about the fourth rejection at or near this level, the next attempt most likely will break. Daily charts looking bullish with an outside bar.

Since 7 am price has fallen, a little slower than expected, and printed at tweazer bottom on 15 min chart at support (1.5190/85). ATR has not expanded perfectly but everything else looks to be bullish, look to buy dips.

Alternative would be a failed break to new highs (spike high). A move back below 1.5200 support area would confirm.

Trades 13 July ’10

07:40  Just pushed to new lows and printed a good reversal signal ,as part of the false move trade.  But still in trade from yesterday, TS is +12 p. so decided to let trade play out first as the market feels heavy, and the long term trend is down.

08:15  T/S was hit starting to regret that trade choice.

08:20  Quick spurt up than an outside bar, re shorting as still below SMA.

SHort 1.4993, stop 1.5020, target 1.4920, T/S 35 p.

08:40 stop hit   - 27 p.

Looking like the false move trade is playing out. Market starting to get volatile, big move coming.

08:50 Short 1.4996, stop 1.5025, target 1.4920, T/S 35 p.

Stop just hit on last trade and then printed a reversal, still below downward sloping SMA, still have faith in the downside. If wrong will switch to buying dips later in the session.

09:30  stop hit during news announcement – 29 p.

Reversed position Long 1.5008, stop 1.4960, target 1.5100, T/S 37p.

False move scenario playing out, market moved above SMA.

11:35  Trailing stop hit 1.5080   + 72 p.

12:15  Market pulled back 40 + and started to reverse near the lower BB after an hour and half.

Long 1.5089, stop 1.5060, target 1.5130, T/S 37p.

13:50  removing profit target and allowing T/S to take me out of the position, due to impressive strength in cable, good chance average daily range (150 currently) will be exceeded.

14:10 Cable is starting to stall at S2 (1.5159) T/S at 1.5121. Awaiting US open to consider closing trade.

17:25  Closed  at 1.5167  + 78 p.

Hourly charts started to show indecision and daily range stretched (currently 226 p)

European Open 13 July ’10

Quite asian session in a 35 p range, until just before 7am and price dropped 50 + p in 30 mins, just shy of the previous days low.  Move looks to be a false move and at 7.35 am printed a reversal pattern on the 5 and 15 min. charts, which is also playing out on the hour chart.  Reluctant to trade this move as the down trend has been so dominant, but I feel I may regret this.

Looking to sell rallies while below down sloping SMA.

Trades 12 July ’10

08:00  The early move down between 7 am and 8 am could well be the false move, a bounce is due from oversold levels.  but on the flip side the down trend is strong, so will reverse if wrong.

Long 1.4982, stop 1.4956, target 1.5050, T/S 35 p.

08:30  All the US based pairs are buying dollars, reversing position.

Closed 1.4964  - 18 p.

Short 1.4965, stop 1.5005, target 1.4900, T/S 35 p.

11:15  Beginning to think the false move was later in the session, than usual and happened at 9.30 am.

Closed 1.4989  - 24 p.

Long 1.4992, stop 1.4945, target 1.5100, T/S 35 p.

13:09  Starting to run into resistance at 1.5050, maybe a good place for a pullback, looking to tighten stop to 1.5030.

13:20  Closed 1.5033  + 41 p.

14:50 Breakout to new highs after 35 p retrace.

Long 1.5061, stop 1.5020, target 1.5100, T/S 35 p.

15:45  Just printed a double top at 1.5085 moving stop to 1.5062.

16:00 Stop hit 1.5062  + 1 p.

17:10  Change in trend, cable has dropped rapidly down 80 p. from the double top high, and has moved below  the SMA, which is still flat.

Short 1.5013, stop 1.5053, target 1.4900, T/S 35 p.

13.07.08  trailing stop hit at 1.5001  +  12 p.