Silver 13 August ’09

Short SLV  14.73, stop 15.25, RL1.0.

EDIT: 21/08/09  closed at 13.97 (+0.76)  +1.46%.

EDIT: 26/09/09  Short SLV 14.09, stop 15.00, RL1.5

EDIT: stop hit  at 15.00  (-0.91)  -1.5%.

Silver 10 June ’09

Shorting again same reasons as before, see previous post.

Short SLV 14.99, stop 15.80, move to BE 14.50, RL1.0.

NOTE:  Short XAG/USD on real account at 15.266, stop 16.00, RL2.0.  (collective2 doesn’t have XAG/USD so using SLV)

EDIT: 03/07/09  stop moved to 14.80.

EDIT:  04/08/09  stop hit (+0.19) 0.03%.

EDIT:  26/08/09  Short  SLV 14.09, stop 15.00 RL1.0

EDIT:  02/09/09 stop hit  15.00  (-0.91)  -1%.

Silver 03 June ’09

Short XAG/USD 15.835, stop 16.30, move to BE at 15.50, RL2.0.

EDIT:  04/06/09  Stop moved to 15.8.

“[Silver]’s large outside-down day, a $1.05 reversal from intraday high to low (basis spot), indicates a top is in place. Today’s $16.28 high is just three ticks from where wave 5 exactly equals the net distance traveled in waves 1 through 3 ($16.25). The Primary wave B (circle) top occurred in conjunction with an extreme in optimism, which reached 93 percent bulls on silver (DSI). This level of optimism was only exceeded by a 95 percent reading on February 20, one trading day prior to the wave (A) of B (circle) top. The decline now starting should be measured in weeks and months. Eventually, wave C (circle) should draw silver beneath the low of wave A (circle), which is $8.39 basis spot. “

EWI have a way of forecasting that basically means they are never wrong, and exact risk levels can be vague, but occasionally when there conviction is high, and risk and direction is clear, its worth a trade. It will be interesting to see how this call works out. Either way I am positioned for a big move, at worst a small profit.

EDIT:  04/06/09  Silver  stop hit 15.803  (+0.032) +0.13%.

Lots of volatility today, very surprised to be taken out so quickly, try again next week.

Silver 01 June ’09

EDIT: 01/06/09  Silver has been on a strong run up finally stopping at round number resistance at 16.00, the 4 hour charts are very oversold, short term rising Tl has been broken and price has move below the 10EMA on the hourly charts, hourly charts are also showing divergence on the RSI. EWI is calling for a top some time soon. Therefore will be working the short side for the next week or two. Looking for a position trade.

Short  XAG/USD 15.863, stop 16.00, move to BE at 15.600, Target to be confirmed, RL5.0.

EDIT:  02/06/09 stop moved to 15.800.

“[Silver]’s fifth wave is well along toward completion, as the rally is in its very latter stages. Spot prices hit round-number resistance of $16.00 and reversed lower into the close. The best interpretation of the near-term wave structure suggests that prices have another upward push ahead before all the subdivisions are in place. There are several potential resistance targets. The first is just ticks above today’s high, at $16.09, where wave 5 of (C) would equal 1.618 times wave 1 of (C). If this level is exceeded, the next is $16.25, where wave 5 would equal the net distance traveled in waves 1 through 3. Then there is $16.43, which is the 61.8% retracement of wave A (circle) down. The Daily Sentiment Index has pushed to 89% bulls on silver (trade-futures.com), which is reaching toward an extreme. Any decline beneath $14.28 would be a strong signal that wave B (circle) up is complete and wave C (circle) down is underway.”

Source:  http://www.elliottwave.com

EDIT:  13:00 Silver stop hit at 15.80   (+0.063) + 2.29%.

Waiting for peak between 16 and 17.

Silver 20 May ’09

Long 14.100, stop at 13.60, RL5.0, move stop to BE at 14.35, targets 16.00-19.00.

EDIT:  21/05/09  Closed trade at 14.250  (+0.15)  +1.5%.

No follow through on the break of the descending TL, waiting for a pullback to rising TL resistance currently at 14.05.

EDIT:  18:45  Silver pulled back to the TL, and moved  up breaking the high, having reached a low of 14.092. Gold is showing a lot of strength, and it seems the bull market is back in force for the precious metals.

Long SLV 14.468, stop at 14.1,RL5.0, move stop to BE at 14.65, target 16.5 and 19.5.

EDIT:  26/05/09  Closed trade at 14.4965  (+0.0285)  + 0.38%.

Silver 19 May ’09

Silver (SLV) is looking more bullish, and has setup a support shelf at around 13.60. A short term descending TL has been broken, and a move above last weeks high at 14.352 would be very bullish.

Looking to go Long near 14.00, stop at 13.60.