Oil 26 June ’09

Oil rallied strongly yesterday after news of some miltant raids in Nigeria, but news is now reporting an amnesty, toward the militants. Since Oil has started to decline again.

“MEND said earlier that it attacked an oil facility run by Royal Dutch Shell Plc, Europe’s biggest oil company, hours after an offer of the amnesty.

An oil well at Shell’s Afremo offshore field was blown up about 11 p.m. yesterday in response to “a punitive” raid by the military on Agbeti community in Delta state, Gbomo said in an e-mailed statement.

The platform had been shut since Feb. 28 following an attack on Shell’s Trans Escravos Pipeline, Precious Okolobo, Shell’s spokesman in Nigeria, said by phone. Military spokesman Colonel Rabe Abubakar said troops didn’t carry out any raids yesterday.

The militant group has stepped up a sabotage campaign against Nigeria’s oil industry since a military offensive against its positions began last month in the delta, which produces nearly all of the country’s crude. Oil facilities run by Chevron Corp. and Eni SpA also have been damaged.

Five militant leaders in the oil region have accepted the amnesty offer by Yar’Adua, which will expire on Oct. 4, their lawyer, Ikenna Enekweizu, told reporters today in the oil hub of Port Harcourt.”

Source: http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601110&sid=aqldg7FvdDrg

The move up toward the descending TL (top blue line), has provided a good entry with a clearly defined risk level. A move above the TL would render the trade idea wrong approx. 38.80 on USO.

The USO has formed a descending wedge (between blue TL’S), and price looks to be falling to the lower border around 35.00 potential target area.

Short USO 37.80, stop 38.80, move to BE 37.00, RL2.0.

EDIT: 30/06/09  Temporarily removed stop order, as the market is likely to gap higher at the open, and then fall if the futures market is anything to go by. Stop to be placed just above high after open.

EDIT: 01/07/09  closed at 37.71  (+0.9)  0.09%

After the trade going against my position, and breaking out above the top TL, decided to close when I had the chance, possibly too soon. Bad fill did’nt help, but thats the way it goes some times.

EDIT:  02/07/09  Closing last trade was the dumbest thing I have done in a while, the moment I closed, USO has been falling ever since, now at 36.00. Must let the trade play out, and stop second guessing the market.

Oil 05 June ’09

Shorting USO again after oil hitting $70 a barrel, scaling into position 1% at a time with 40.1 as the price proving the idea wrong.

Short at 37.23, RL1.0.  Looking to add if price rises to 38, then 39. 1% each time full risk will be 3%. If price moves down will add 4% below 37.

EDIT:  10/06/09  Short USO 38.68, stop 40.10, RL1.0.

EDIT: 12/06/09  Short USO 39.29, stop 40.10, RL1.0.

EDIT:  19/06/09  Closed 38.68 position at 37.95  (+0.73)  +0.51%.

Looking to continue building short position above 39.00.

EDIT: 23/06/09  Short USO 36.36, stop 38.0, RL1.0.

Yesterday Oil dropped hard to a low near 36.00, added to position on early US bounce.

Closed 39.29 position at 37.44  (+1.85)  +2.28%.

As soon as I added to my position Oil rallied straight up, had to close part of the position for some profit, will see what tomorrow brings stop at 38.0. This was a case of holding on too long, and giving back half the paper profit, and possibly taking a loss on part todays short, very disappointing.

EDIT:  25/06/09  Closed  37.23 position at 37.62  (-0.39) -044%.

Closed remainder of USO position 36.36 at 37.62  (-1.26) -0.76%.

Oil 03 June ’09

Short USO at 37.06, stop 38.00,move to BE at 36.00, RL2.0.

EDIT:  20:45  USO Stop moved to 36,90.

EDIT:  04/06/09  USO jumped almost 1$ at the open and my stop was filled at 37.19  (-0.13)  -0.27%.

Dam it, this market sure is jumpy at the moment, something must be brewing, need to be on full alert.

Oil 25 May ’09

Short WTI at 61.00, stop 62.30, RL5.0, move stop to BE at 59.50, target 50.00.

EDIT:  22/05/09  Closed trade at 60.87, not falling as expected, due to the change in dollar sentiment.  (+0.13) +0.49%.

Oil 19 May ’09

In an earlier post  http://mozztrader.wordpress.com/2009/03/23/commodity-holdings/ . The long Oil (WTI) trade was stopped out prematurely at 47 on a spike lower, price has continued on to 60.95 as of today.

After a strong move up from 47 to 60 price is looking a little extended, with some divergence on the 4hr RSI, and overbought conditions on the Daily. Looking for a pull back into the fib zone between 55 & 52, near the rising TL (green heavy) and the 50MA currently at 52. Looking for a break of short term rising TL at about 59.20.

Commodity Oil 24 February ’09

Long  Ticker: WTI  Price: 40  Stop Loss 37.10  Risk level 5.

Entry taken after 4 days bouncing along ascending trendline thru Dec 08 Feb 09 lows.  Hold position unitl close below 50 MA Daily.

 Stop moved to 42 after close above descending trendline of Highs Jan, Feb ’09.

EDIT: 06.04.09  Stop moved to 45.

EDIT: 17.04.09  Stop moved to 47.

EDIT: 21.04.09  Stop hit at 47  (+7)  +12.06%.