Under Construction
08:00 False move trade on push thru 5300 and then reversed in a failed breakout. the earlier move at 6:50 had better atr movement, and could of been the move, as the false move have been happening earlier than usual. Will reverse if wrong with small position.
Short 1.5292, stop 1.5315, target 1.5170, T/S 37 p. Half position.
08:35 stop hit 1.5315 - 23 p.
Break out trade
Asia has been doing the usual consolidation in a tight range, then between 7 and 8 am has pushed to a new high, just thru round number resistance at 5300, and reversed. Possibly the false move.
Alternatively an early move at 6:40 down to 5260, may have been the false move.
Looking to sell rallies while below days high (1.5308), reverse if highs broken.
Daily charts still in upward channel, weeks move have been in a tight range about 220 p. currently near top.
08:00 False move trade, price bouncing off daily ascending TL and atr expanding, 3 bar reversal. Need to clear 1.5200 to have confidence in trade.
Long 1.5170, stop 1.5148, target 1.5290, T/S 37 p. Half position
08:15 starting to stall at 5200 resistance, will close for small profit if we start to reverse.
10:35 High so far 1.5290, and hourly charts are starting to stall, confluence of resistance at 5300, TL, fib, daily highs, target sell order moved to 1.5275. 140 p so far today atr at 160.
11:00 Target hit 1.5275 + 105 p.
Picked the false move and pulled most of the move so far (total move 140, so missed 35), only regret position size, but at the time I was thinking short.
Yesterday the low of the day touched the bottom of the rising daily chart channel, then as soon as europe opened they pushed price back toward the TL and reversed in false move kind of way. A little early 7:10 for my liking, but due to the proximity of the TL and the tight stop available, playing the buy dips, while above todays low (1.5151).
Possibly the move from todays low until 9 am ish could provide the real false move which would be more in line with the recent down trend, and consolidation around the 1.5150 level.
Plenty of event risk today, need to watch for developments in risk on risk off scenario.
“Fixing: A pre-set time of day when bids and offers are aggregated and cleared at a published price. Popular fixings are the Tokyo fixing at 00:50 GMT, “ECB fix” at 12:15 GMT and the London fixing at 16:00 GMT. Most of the volume at fixings is generated by asset managers. They have a fiduciary responsibility to get their clients the best possible execution and the thinking is the fixing price is the most transparent of the day. The benchmark price is published by the WM Company who observes the price action from 16:00 until 16:01 and sets the rate at their discretion.
What does that mean for the rest of us?
Traders can get an edge by learning which way the market is leaning at the fixings, the most important of which is the fixing at 4 pm London time each afternoon. Typically, we at ForexLive speak with our banking contacts a few minutes before the fixing to try and learn of any order imbalances.
If banks have lots of buy orders and not many sell orders, it is in their interest to push the market up in advance of the fixing, to fill the client orders at a higher price. When there are more sellers than buyers, the opposite often takes place. Having this information as the fix approaches can be quite advantageous.”
Source: http://www.forexlive.com/120410/all/what-are-currency-fixings-and-how-do-they-work
07:55 hesitated on the early false move, waiting for hourly bar confirmation. Then crash. Stupidly jumped in. Idiot.
Short 1.5204, stop 1.5320.
Closed half at 1.5250 – 46 p.
Stop hit other half - 116 p.
08:35 Short 1.5298, stop 1.5320, half position
Stop hit 1.5320 – 22 p.
08:55 Breakout trade
Long 1.5325, stop 1.5280, half position
09:15 Closed and reversed 1.5285 – 40 p.
The big spike appears to have by some bank trader pushing the wrong button. Therefore ignoring the spike, and treating the spike high (1.5335) as the false move. Back to full positions.
Short 1.5286, stop 1.5340, target 1.5170, T/S 37 p.
10:50 Adding to position on break of support order at 1.5255.
11:35 Short 1.5255, stop 1.5315, target 1.5170, T/S 37 p.
13:40 Average price now 1.5276, stops moved to 1.5270, not Trailing stop until I see reaction to 5200 level, double position on, with risk covered, good position to be in after stupid beginning.
15:40 Closed both positions at 1.5215 + 40 p. + 71 p.
Cable struggling to break the 5200 level and at daily atr.
16:15 5200 level break of support, with days trend.
Short 1.5194, stop 1.5225, target 1.5130, T/S 37 p.
19:30 target hit 1.5133 + 61 p.
Very small range overnight forming a tight flag, hinting at possible continuation. Daily chart also looking bullish in rising channel. Yesterdays move reversed at bottom on channel.
False move started early 7 am and finished at 7:15, then about 35 mins later dumped big time over 100 p. I missed the move waiting for confirmation on the hourly chart.
Scenario now looks to be either resistance at 1.5320 holds and more downside to come, or 5320 gives way and up we go toward Daily TL resistance at 1.5450.
07:50 False move trade stalled at round number & 38 fib. Hourly chart doji, 5 & 15 min 3 bar reversal.
Short 1.5293, stop 1.5315, target 1.5170, T/S 37 p.
09:05 Volatility starting to increase to the down side low since high ( 1.5265). Possibility this is the false move. Watching carefully, may need to close for small profit. Move back above would 1.5300, would mean switch to buying dips. T/S @ 1.5305.
10:35 Cable has started to tank, T/S now @ 1.5250, great trade right at the top (17 p) of the session. Watching support at 5200 region for bounce or further weakness toward target.
13:50 support found near 1.5150, decided to let it run for 1.5140, but started to bounce.
Closed at 1.5185 + 108 p.
Good day caught the false move, and got out as it was turning, the full daily atr (156 p)was reached, and I was not tempted to another trade.
Since the end of the european session yesterday, cable has slowly been rising faster and faster, right until 8 am today. Retracing to the 38 fib of the recent down move ( 1.5471 – 1.5202 ). The hourly chart, 15min & 5 min have started to show reversal patterns.
Potential false move. Only problem is the atr has not been expanding as much as I would like. On the positive the stall has happened at round number resistance 1.5300 – 5310. Looking to sell rallies until current high is broken (1.5308).
08:05 false move developing with an outside bar reversal, after a failed break of fridays low.
Long 1.5284, stop 1.5265, target 1.5400, T/S 37p.
09:05 False move trade was the right one, cable has reversed right on time and risen to 1.5350 so far, hourly charts showing strong outside bar. Looking for pull back to ad to position, T/S 1.5313.
09:45 Trailing stop hit 1.5313 + 29 p.
Waiting for reversal around 1.5300 in the next 45 mins. for another long position.
10:10 Cable has started to reverse at the 50 50 fib of todays up move and the SMA, buying half now and the half if we drop lower near 1.5300, but stay above 1.5280/ 1.5265.
Long 1.5320, stop 1.5280, target 1.5400, T/S 37p. Half position.
10:26 stop hit 1.5280 – 40 p.
The way the market is behaving starting to think the up move topping at 8:50 am was the false move, changing bias to short and increasing size if low breaks 1.5268.
Short 1.5280, stop 1.5325, target 1.5160, T/S 37p.
16:30 closed 1.5220 + 60 p.
